2025 Polaris preview, part two

A look at final 5/10 shortlisters + 5 more that got shafted

This year’s Polaris Prize gala is on Tuesday. It’s their 20th anniversary. I’ve been there since day one.

I dove into the 2025 longlist here. You can find the shortlist here.

This week’s live music listings are here.

Here’s the second installment of a deep(ish) dive into 5/10 shortlisters and five more we should be still talking about. The first installment is here.

For a less subjective take on this year’s shortlist, go to CBC Music’s Polaris hub. Holly Gordon compiles some of the most memorable moments of the last 20 years.

Thank you to all the paid subscribers who make this possible.

The contenders:

Mustafa – Dunya

The album: Mustafa had a hard task living up to the hype and deserved goodwill of his 2021 debut, When Smoke Rises, but he did more than rise to the occasion. Whereas that record was very much rooted in his Regent Park neighbourhood in Toronto, and dealing with the loss of a friend, Dunya casts its net… well, not that much wider, as it’s primarily about the fraying of childhood friendships, culminating in the song “Leaving Toronto.”

This is very much a concept album, rooted in one topic and one mood: gentle folk music with a modern pop sheen (from XX producer Rodaidh McDonald— “not to be confused with the McDonald’s character,” Google’s AI helpfully informs me as I spellcheck).

For better or worse, these songs bleed into each other both lyrically and musically, with the exception of an XX-y coda to “Gaza is Calling” and the lyrics of “I’ll Go Anywhere,” a song of religious devotion—the type of which rarely appears on a critically acclaimed album anymore. Clairo and Rosalia drop by for cameos. It’s all quite lovely, albeit with little variance.

The chances: Strong. I’d argue he should have won in 2021, and this record is just as beloved as the debut. Also: because it’s such easy listening (that’s not a dig), it’s more likely to be a consensus pick in a jury room.

Nemahsis – Verbathim

The album: This has hooks for miles, delivered by an incredibly strong vocalist and great production. There’s a long backstory haunted by Oct. 7, 2023 (that I get into in this review), which has nothing to do with the lyrics and shouldn’t apply to the discussion here. As I wrote:

Verbathim thrives on musical merit alone. “Coloured Concrete” is a total radio earworm, as is “Stick of Gum” and “You Wore It Better.” Opening acoustic number “Old Body New Mind” has one of the most beautiful melodies of the last year; it’s Feist-y. “Spinning Plates” and “I Borrow Happiness From Tomorrow” are sparse and delicate and could fit on a Fiona Apple album. “Dead Giveaway” and “Furniture Killer” have a Perfume Genius intensity. And what’s the giveaway that she grew up in Milton? The totally Canadian hoser accent on “Fine Print.”

The chances: Excellent. I know Polaris is supposed to be about the music and not the narrative—but people are people, and the narrative is always at least an unconscious influence. The narrative behind this album is compelling—influential young artist gets dropped by major label for social media posts and becomes a DIY success—albeit rarely challenged and not fact-checked.

But Verbathim deserves to win for its music.

The OBGMs – Sorry, It’s Over

The album: With their second Polaris appearance, the OGBMs are one of the only heavy rock bands to ever crack the shortlist, alongside their peers Pup and Metz (members of which chipped in with songwriting assistance here). If those bands are your cup of meat, then these guys should be as well, so more power to them. They’re a tight band who grew up with early 2000s punk and metal and radio rock. Densil McFarlane is a magnetic presence and a great rock’n’roll screamer—and, judging by the lyrics in the video below, has just as much reason to write a song called “Leaving Toronto” as Mustafa.

The chances: Slim. It’s been 16 years since a band like this won Polaris (Fucked Up in 2009), and I can’t see it happening ever again. Rock’n’roll may not be dead, but it doesn’t win prizes.

Population II – Maintenant Jamais.

The album: Reviewed here. This is such a Montreal record, mixing Ummagumma-era Pink Floyd with the proggiest parts of the Dears and the layered fury of Fly Pan Am and plenty of groove from the city where discotheques never die (interesting, Population II share a producer with Marie Davidson).

At the same time, I hear a lot of Toronto’s Change of Heart and Victoria’s NoMeansNo: Population II are heirs to those lineages as well.

This power trio pulls off miracles with just three players, not the least of whom is singing drummer Pierre-Luc Gratton. Their greatest gift is their ever-changing moods, often in the same song: this is not a one-trick-pony band.

In other news, this week Population II dropped a collaborative EP with fellow Montreal space travellers Yoo Doo Right and saxophonist Nolan Potter, under the clever name Yoo II. (That’s the word “you” and the Roman numeral II, Casey.)

As I wrote this spring, “Population II put out this short film recently, neatly coinciding with the IMAX re-release of Pink Floyd Live at Pompeii. ‘Live from a Dismantled Montreal Overpass’ doesn’t have the same ring to it, but…”

The chances: Good. Quebec is having a moment, a creative flashpoint, especially when it comes to prog psych. Population II is a huge part of that, and this is a very strong album (even if I prefer the previous one).

I think if a franco act takes it this year, it will be Bibi Club. But Maintenant Jamais is a more layered listen, which a Polaris jury might favour.

Having just said that the OBGMs won’t win because they’re a rock band, I’ll argue that the very rock-ish Population II has a much better shot because they have more of an arty, psychedelic bent, whereas the OBGMs are much more straight-ahead.

Population II play Lee’s Palace on October 7, opening for Frankie and the Witch Fingers.

Ribbon Skirt – Bite Down

The album: There’s been an awful lot of ’90s indie rock back in vogue lately, and this new-ish Montreal band is yet another: some Ride-ish swirling shoegaze, some Breeders-y pop, some late-period Cure, maybe even some Cranberries or Hole.

The twist here, for many, is the Indigenous perspective of singer/guitarist Tashiina Buswa, who started this band with guitarist Billy Riley. That’s explored in a better written review than this one is in Pitchfork. There’s a good interview in Merry-Go-Round magazine.

Here, they get with plenty of help from their producers: Scott “Monty” Munro of the not-dissimilar sounding Preoccupations (f.k.a shortlisters Viet Cong) and Marlaena Moore (sadly yet to be longlisted for her solo work).

This is a promising debut, but not album-of-the-year territory. Stay tuned.

The chances: Slim. Again: I can’t see a rock album like this winning Polaris in 2025. However, they might have a shot at the song prize, because this single is ace:

Ribbon Skirt play the Project Nowhere festival at 1978 Dundas St. W., on October 2.

Before we get to albums I feel should have been on the 2025 Polaris shortlist:

Congrats to Alex Payandeh, Kristin Pouw and Scott Belluz, the three winners of tickets to the 20th anniversary Polaris gala on Tuesday (plus a poster of their choice). Entrants to the contest had to name their favourite Canadian album(s) of the last 20 years that never made a Polaris shortlist. Here’s what they came up with, a list that makes me proud of my readership!

Most of these albums did, however, make the long list; those that didn’t are bolded below. In chronological order:

Tegan and Sara – The Con (2008)

Socalled – Ghetto Blaster (2008)

Christine Fellows – Nevertheless (2008)

One Hundred Dollars – Forest of Tears (2009)

Japandroids – Post-Nothing (2009)

Bruce Peninsula – A Mountain Is A Mouth (2009) (a personal fave)

Shotgun Jimmie – Transistor Sister (2011)

Half Moon Run – Dark Eyes (2012)

Sandro Perri – Impossible Spaces (2012)

Dan Mangan – Oh Fortune (2012)

Jim Guthrie – Takes Time (2013) (a personal fave)

We Are The City – Violent (2014)

Wintersleep – The Great Detachment (2016)

Michelle McAdorey – Into Her Future (2016) (a personal fave)

The Beaches – Late Show (2017)

Cold Specks – Fool’s Paradise (2017)

P'tit Belliveau – Greatest Hits Vol. 1 (2020)

Joel Plaskett – 44 (2020)

Mathias Kom and Ariel Sharrat – Never Work (2020)

Clairmont the Second – It’s Not How It Sounds (2021)

BadBadNotGood – Talk Memory (2022)

The coulda-woulda-shouldas:

Speaking of underdogs, these are some records that I voted for, or almost voted for, that are not shortlisted but should still be in the conversation:

Antoine Corriveau – Oiseau de Nuit

The album: This is the Beck album you’ve been waiting for! Maybe. I reviewed it here:

Not sure what to say about this oddball brilliance—other than that it could only have come from Quebec. Beck-like genre-jumping, 21st-century Gainsbourg-isms, straight-up torchy jazz with Roots-like rhythm (“Un jardin”), some Soul Coughing, and beaucoup, beacoup de Jean Leloup. Not everything works all the time, but there’s no question the ambitious Corriveau doesn’t feel bound by any musical limitations at all. Also: top-notch production.

This video is every francophobe’s worst nightmare of layabout Quebec musicians, who are no doubt being funded by equalization payments from Alberta… or something. To which I say, MORE COWBELL!

Why it didn’t shortlist: Too much franco competition this year, is my guess. Also: there is a white guy rapping in French, which doesn’t usually land anyone on a Polaris shortlist (except Radio Radio in 2010; Jean Leloup was robbed in 2015).

Admittedly, this album is a bit much. It’s dense. There’s a whole lot going on.

Cuff the Duke – Breaking Dawn

The album: Hearts On Fire-era band put out their first album in 12 years. To say I loved it would be a gross understatement. Reviewed here:

Right from the astounding 2003 debut, Cuff the Duke’s songs have had epic stretches, at times psychedelic, at times cinematic, often intense. This time out is no exception: there are some tasty, twisty guitar workouts between Wayne Petti and Francois Turenne (the epic, inevitable set-ender “Stranded Here”) and, on “Ballad of the Breaking Dawn,” a brass breakdown that sounds like a martial lament … Some of the most effective songs here happen when bassist Paul Lowman picks up a fiddle (“Seasons Come, Seasons Go”). There’s some nice extended doom-twang at the end of “Keep Going Anyway.” Even at their most ambitious, CTD pack a lot into songs that don’t stretch past the five-minute mark. They also deliver tiny, perfect pop songs in under three minutes, like “Half of It.”

Canadian comeback of the year? Hands down.

Alas, I was apparently the only person in Canada who felt that way. Prove me wrong!

Why it didn’t even longlist: Ontario roots-rock band in their mid-40s. Three strikes!

Abigail Lapell – Anniversary

The album: Reviewed here:

Songs that could be a century old or written by Neil Young a half-century ago or by Sarah Harmer 25 years ago or by… well, not a lot of people are writing melodies this beautiful these days, and not with a voice like Lapell’s, which is rich with empathetic warmth—there’s a good reason she often gets Natalie Merchant comparisons, though Lapell sounds like she’s more likely to get her hands dirty. More gardener than librarian.

Why it didn’t even longlist: Records that you enjoy with your parents usually don’t go far at Polaris, nor do artists who are not well known outside the folk festival circuit.

Richard Laviolette – All Wild Things Are Shy

The album: Reviewed here:

Richard Laviolette made this record while he knew he was dying. It was released one year to the day after he chose a medically assisted death at 41, while ravaged by Huntington’s disease. That inescapable fact looms over this record. It does not, however, overshadow it.

This album doesn’t swing. Almost every track is propelled by a metronomic rhythm section, like the ticking of a clock counting precious seconds remaining. Its rigid rhythms, even in 6/8, are somewhat ominous. Or: steady and persistent, focused on the task, letting the lyrics land directly, allowing the layers of guitar and pedal steel to float above, weaving in and out judiciously.

Laviolette was more than aware his body and mind were failing him, that he was on his way out. He wanted every note to be perfect. Mission accomplished. Few artists get to write a final chapter as successful as this.

Why it didn’t shortlist: Too morbid? Too personal? I would say the album is neither of those things, at all, but can understand why the trepidatious might think it is. Again, I think the main reason for its exclusion is more mundane and musical: this is roots-rock from Ontario.

But whatever. It’s a minor triumph that this album made it on the long list at all. It’s an album rooted in community, both in Guelph, Ontario and in Sackville, New Brunswick, in the extended family of You’ve Changed Records and Sappyfest. It’s a personal and artistic triumph for a songwriter who meant the world to his friends but was rarely heard by others.

This album’s existence is a priceless prize in itself. He’s already won.

Lemon Bucket Orkestra – Cuckoo

The album: This Ukrainian-led pan-Slavic Toronto band was reviewed here:

Lemon Bucket has always been a live band first and foremost, because nothing could ever replicate the full-body thrill of standing in a crowd of people, the Lemon Bucketeers among them, surrounding you with a full brass attack and bow-shredding violin, bopping with a buoyant crowd with hands in the air.

Cuckoo does everything a Lemon Bucket record should: bottle their live energy while leaving room for the less frantic moments, like the Ukrainian vocal opener “Shchedryj Vechor” or the haunting Macedonian ballad “Zjadi Zjadi.”

Why it didn’t even longlist: Maybe because of that video? Who cares, it’s fun. More accurately: for all Polaris’s intentions of being genre-agnostic, it’s pretty obvious that the prize rarely, if ever, strays from pop/rock/R&B into more specifically ethnic music. Or jazz.

On top of that, despite the breadth of their material and their more serious side, Lemon Bucket have a well-deserved reputation as a party band—so for the same reason that My Son the Hurricane or Empanadas Ilegales or whoever will never be part of Polaris conversations, I suspect neither will Lemon Bucket.

Not that they care. Being the alternative to the alternative, and far outside the mainstream, has its own rewards (ideally).

Lemon Bucket celebrate their 15th anniversary with dates in Kingston, Kitchener and Hamilton this fall, and play a double bill with NYC’s legendary Klezmatics at Parkdale Hall on October 4, which is also Nuit Blanche in Toronto. Info here.

The winner:

Were it entirely up to me, it would be between Nemahsis and Saya Gray. I’d say both those artists have a serious shot, but then again Mustafa might get reparations for not winning in 2021 (when he should have). Or it could finally go franco, likely for Bibi Club.

Or: none of the above! I was dead wrong about Jeremy Dutcher last year, when Cindy Lee was robbed. Share your prediction in the comments.

The Polaris Gala will be livestreamed on CBC Music's YouTube page and CBC Gem.

Hey look! You love Canadian music so much that you actually read this far. Here’s a treat for you: