Moneyballing the Polaris 2023 long list

Annual guide to Cdn critics' choice of 40 records

The Polaris Music Prize long list was announced today. It can be found here. These 40 records, selected by more than 200 Canadian music critics, were released between May 1, 2022 and May 1, 2023. After another round of voting, this list will be whittled down to a shortlist of 10, to be announced one month from now, July 13. The prize is given out on Sept. 19 at Massey Hall.

Here’s how this year’s long list breaks down demographically, how many familiar faces and Hall of Famers there are, and, for paid subscribers only, short reviews of my favourite 20 of the 40.

Quick takeaway: Laurentian elites dominate as always, but it’s a good year for Western Canada. Or at least, better than it usually is. And the nominees are pretty much at gender parity, with, as Lido Pimienta would say, “a lot of melanin in the room.”

Mistakes are inevitable, corrections are welcome:

Familiar faces

Previous winners: 1.5 (Feist, All Hands Make Light’s Efrim Menuck as a member of Godspeed)

Previous shortlisters (not including winners): 11.

Snotty Nose Rez Kids (3x), U.S. Girls (3x), Jessie Reyez (2x), the Sadies (+4 LL), Daniel Caesar (+ 3 LL), Alvvays, Dan Mangan, Andy Shauf, Witch Prophet, Zoon.

That’s 10, but I’ll give two half points each to Bibi Club (half of whom was in Plants and Animals) and Murray Lightburn (who shortlisted with the Dears).

Previous longlisters, all once each: 9

Aquakulture, Begonia, Badge Epoque, Philippe Brach, Big Brave, Chiild, Ghostkeeper (back in 2010!), Thierry Larose, Alexandra Stréliski

So: 19/40 artists are new to Polaris this year.

Geography:

Montreal: 13.

All Hands, Big Brave, Bibi Club, Philippe Brach (via Saguenay), Chiild, Gayance, Thierry Larose, Murray Lightburn, Isabella Lovestory (via Honduras), N Nao, Planet Giza, Alexandra Stréliski, Yoo Doo Right

Toronto: 12. 

Alvvays (via East Coast), Badge Epoque, Daniel Caesar (via Oshawa), Eliza Niemi, Poolblood, Jessie Reyez (Brampton), the Sadies, Andy Shauf (via Regina), Dylan Sinclair, U.S. Girls, Witch Prophet, Zoon (via Selkirk/Winnipeg/Hamilton)

Calgary: 3. Ghostkeeper, Jairus Sharif, Mariel Buckley (though she recently moved to Edmonton)

Edmonton: 2. Khotin, Home Front

Vancouver: 2. Dan Mangan, Snotty Nose Rez Kids

Winnipeg: 2. Begonia, JayWood

Halifax: 1. Aquakulture

St. John’s: 1. Nico Paulo

Kenora!: 1. Aysanabee, though he now lives in Toronto

Nomad: 3. Feist (Calgary/Toronto/Paris/California), Debby Friday (Montreal/Vancouver/Toronto), Tami Neilson (Toronto/New Zealand)

There are nine artists from Western Canada (10, if you include Regina native Andy Shauf; 11 if you include Manitoban Zoon; both are now in Toronto). That feels unusually—and pleasantly—high in Polaris history.

Though the paucity of Vancouver artists is always surprising, considering its population—but not all that surprising considering its real estate situation.

Gender:

18/40 are female or female-fronted. To the best of my knowledge, only Zoon and poolblood identify as non-binary.

New Canada:

To the best of my extremely limited knowledge and lack of DNA tests, there are 18 non-“white” nominees, four of which are Indigenous (Zoon, Aysanabee, Ghostkeeper, SNRK)

Genre:

Genre is over! But here goes…:

R&B: 7

Aquakulture, Begonia, Chiild, Daniel Caesar, Gayance, Planet Giza, Dylan Sinclair

The genre FKA “indie rock”: 7

Bibi Club, Feist, Ghostkeeper, Dan Mangan, Eliza Niemi, poolblood, Zoon

Guitar rock: 4

Alvvays, the Sadies, Home Front, Yoo Doo Right

Pop: 4

Jessie Reyez, U.S. Girls, Nico Paulo, Aysanabee

Abstractions (aka psych or jazz): 3

All Hands, Badge Epoque, Jairus Sharif. Could include Yoo Doo Right here, too.

Country: 2

Mariel Buckley, Tami Neilson

Rap: 1! Snotty Nose Rez Kids. That’s surprising, in 2023. Could arguably put Planet Giza in here. Or Isabella Lovestory.

Reggaeton: 1. Isabella Lovestory

Electronica: 1. Khotin

Metal/aggressive: 1. Big Brave

Neo-classical: 1. Alexandra Stréliski

Everything else, very little of which resembles each other: 8

Philippe Brach (franco-art-pop), Debby Friday (industrial R&B/pop), JayWood (alt-pop/R&B), Thierry Larose (franco-alt-pop),  Murray Lightburn (torchy jazz folk), N Nao (abstract folk), Andy Shauf (ornate MOR singer-songwriter), Witch Prophet (psychedelic trip-hop)

Linguistics:

Francophone: 4 (Philippe Brach, Thierry LaRose, N Nao, Bibi Club)

Instrumental: 3 (Khotin, Jairus Sharif, Alexandra Stréliski)

Spanish: 1 (Isabella Lovestory)

Popularity Contest:

International (and Canadian) headlines will focus on five big names:

Daniel Caesar (headlines arenas), Alvvays (headlines ampitheatres), Jessie Reyez, Feist, Andy Shauf (latter three play to 2,000+ a night throughout North America and Europe).

If you don’t know who these five artists are, that’s your problem! They’re very popular, here and around the world.

Aging indie rockers will also know Murray Lightburn (Dears) and Dan Mangan. And Efrim Menuck of Godspeed is one half of All Hands Make Light; the other half, Ariel Engle is a relatively recent (the last decade) mainstay of Broken Social Scene.

The rest, and probably even most of the above, will prompt the usual whines and cries of “why have I never heard of these people!”

Age:

7 acts are over 40. None, to my knowledge, are over 55.

I do not know who this year’s youngest nominee is. I was going to guess Poolblood, but they’re 27. Maybe N Nao, who’s still a Concordia student? Or Eliza Niemi?

The geezers (a.k.a. people of my demographic) are:

All Hands (Efrim is 52, Ariel is in her mid-40s)

Murray Lightburn (52)

The Sadies (some must be over 50; Dallas Good was 48 when he died in 2022)

Feist (47)

Tami Neilson (46)

Dan Mangan (just turned 40)

Witch Prophet (just turned 40)

Hall of famers:

This extremely unofficial exercise awards 3 points for a win, 2 points for a shortlist, and 1 point for long list.

I define Hall of Fame as one all-time champ and three tiers of most accumulated points. The older Polaris gets (this is year 18), some people fall out of the Hall.

I don’t include Polaris Heritage awards (for albums released before Polaris’s founding in 2005), which are a different beast; if I did, Arcade Fire would be the all-time Polaris champ (one Heritage, one win, two shortlists, two longlists).

Shad has never won, but has been shortlisted five times, most recently last year (5 x 2 points = 10 points total). That makes him the all-time champ. He did not have an eligible album this year.

The big movers this year are Feist, U.S. Girls and Snotty Nose Rez Kids.

2012 winner Feist moves up to 2^nd tier, with 8 points, joining Drake, Owen Pallett, Dan Boeckner (Wolf Parade, Handsome Furs, Operators) and New Pornographers (I’m including an AC Newman solo record in there). If Feist is shortlisted in 2023 and then wins, she would tie Shad as all-time champ.

U.S. Girls and Snotty Nose Rez Kids, both shortlisted 3x previously, move to the 3^rd tier, with 7 points. If either U.S. Girls or SNRK are shortlisted in 2023 and then win, they’ll be vaulted into the 1^st tier (alongside Caribou, Cadence Weapon and Arcade Fire) with 9 points. Joining them now on the 3^rd tier are Basia Bulat (a frequent U.S. Girls collaborator), Joel Plaskett, Patrick Watson, and the Weeknd.

The Weeknd has never won and has shortlisted only once (for his debut), but he has appeared on more Polaris lists than anyone else: 6. He was not eligible this year. Tangent: have you seen his HBO new show, The Idol? Don’t go out of your way. It badly wants to be the new Purple Rain but is instead the new Showgirls. It’s certainly… quotable.

Getting closer to Hall of Fame status this year are the Sadies, Jessie Reyez, Daniel Caesar and Daniel Monkman (Zoon, Ombiigizi). If any of them win, they’re definitely in the Hall.

Current standings

In simple list form, as of this year’s long list, the Hall of Fame is:

10 points: Shad

9 points: Caribou, Cadence Weapon, Arcade Fire

8 points: Feist, Owen Pallett, Drake, Dan Boeckner (w/ Wolf Parade, Handsome Furs, Operators)

7 points: U.S. Girls, Snotty Nose Rez Kids, Basia Bulat, Patrick Watson, The Weeknd, Joel Plaskett, New Pornographers (incl. A.C. Newman)

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There are 40 records on the list: no one is likely to love all of them. I only care for half of them—some of them I don’t think should be anywhere near this list. But whatevs: I’ll save my bitchiness for later (if ever). Here are 20 longlisters I recommend you hear, along with my shortlist predictions: